When the rain season is just around the corner, farmers are the first to sense it. Or at least, are supposed to be first to sense it. That is why many have developed their own indicators; my father used the appearance of the moon and the flight of some group of birds to a certain direction. People have developed their own check points, not to mean that the scientific rain forecast is obsolete, but it is so general in nature such that farmers feel safer to rely on means within their surrounding which are more specific to them.
The tendency to plant just when the rain season is about is in some sense similar to positional investment. Positional investment, however, relies more on guidance by scientific know-how of how the system operates than on ones intuition. Unlike the traditional means I have described regarding the farmer which are based on belief and on myths, positional investing, and this on a strict sense, relies on a causation process that helps us predict the future with more certainty under different states of nature.
For example, most of us know the basic laws of demand and supply not by attending any economic classes or calculus on elasticity of the two forces but by logic. Yes, everyone knows that if we produce more grapes than people need them, we will certainly need to lower their price or their rotting force us to so that they can be absorbed from us. Similarly, if we need so much something that is not readily available we will definitely need to offer more for it. Positional investment, and this is just one of the many guides, may use these simple laws to make predictions based on the information we already have.
of importance is to know the fundamental role information plays in the accuracy of any ones expectations about the future following this tool of prediction. The interpretation of the information is the key to an accurate prediction. However, the information must be correct in the first place. But note that, even false information can be helpful but to only those who perceive its falsity in time. Since the information of today may and often does shed some light on tomorrow, my next article will give a practical application of how to use this reasoning to take advantage of the market and position you accordingly. In short, I will give a practical application of this reasoning in the Kenyan fresh vegetables produce industry, and in this case give an example of tomatoes. Meanwhile, you can think about the industry and how its prices move.
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